Michael Caldwell Georgia Promise to Not Run Again

Pol Playbook: A junkie's guide to the 2022 midterms

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — The House voted 222-208 to hold MARK MEADOWS in contempt of Congress and make a criminal referral to the Department of Justice. Just two Republicans — ADAM KINZINGER (Ill.) and LIZ CHENEY (Wyo.) — voted for the resolution, vii fewer than the nine Republicans who supported the recent contempt of Congress vote regarding STEVE BANNON. More from Nicholas Wu for Congress Minutes

— Elsewhere, Fox News hosts SEAN HANNITY and LAURA INGRAHAM on Tuesday night began to address their text letters to Meadows on Jan. 6 — and their subsequent coverage of the riot. (Their critics won't be mollified.)

SETTLING (Well-nigh) FAMILY Business concern — It took them a while, but Democrats have finally dealt with well-nigh of the tricky debt and spending issues that prevented them fully focusing on the Biden legislative calendar.

The Senate passed a debt limit increment of $ii.five trillion Tuesday afternoon, and the Firm followed suit but after midnight. Congress should be freed from addressing the issue over again until 2023.

A final vote on the long-stalled NDAA is likely in the Senate today. Congress has funded the regime through mid-February. Information technology shouldn't exactly get a big pat on the back for doing the basics, simply the three issues were all cleared with some degree of bipartisanship and less brinkmanship and drama than expected.

The next large hurdle for Democrats? JOE MANCHIN.

Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett expertly break down Manchin's (D-Due west.Va.) role as the key to moving both President JOE BIDEN'southward Build Back Better and voting rights legislation:

"During Bulk Leader CHUCK SCHUMER's leadership meeting on Monday evening, Democratic senators hotly debated how to handle their two biggest unfinished tasks. Some Democrats say they should boot both problems until adjacent yr; others argue the party'due south leverage over Manchin won't better over time and want action now. And Tuesday interviews revealed a party wrestling with how to clinch its peak priorities. …

"Manchin is not yet committed to the $1.7 trillion climate and social condom net legislation, nor does he back up changing the Senate rules to push through an elections beak on a unproblematic majority. He spoke with Biden Monday about the domestic spending bill and met with a trio of Democrats Tuesday to talk over voting rights and the rules changes needed to pass it, signs that the Due west Virginia Democrat is still open up to casting his critical vote for both measures.

"Manchin is expected to speak to Biden again soon and also discussed voting rights legislation in Tuesday'due south full conclave meeting, according to attendees."

Some key quotes:

— Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.): "Voting rights should be the very adjacent thing we do."

— Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.): "There'south no policy reason they have to be linked, just they exercise come down to the same person."

— Schumer: "There's a strong belief in the Senate that nosotros can restore the Senate and at the same time deal with voting rights, and that'due south what we're aiming to do."

— Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.): "Nosotros want both of them, simply voting rights has more of a time issue because there are states already developing their district mapping. If we don't move chop-chop it could be besides late."

— Sen. CHRIS White potato (D-Conn.): "There'south productive conversations happening about voting rights. Zero'due south landed nevertheless. Just like there'due south productive conversations happening on Build Back Improve."

There'southward no white fume from the upper chamber yet about where Manchin volition land on either issue. Nosotros've long been bullish that some version of the reconciliation bill volition pass, even if it's trimmed further. The odds for voting rights legislation are longer. But given Manchin's connected reluctance to come around on either front afterward months and months of talks, the possibility that Democrats volition fail to pass both bills is becoming more real.

Good Wednesday morn. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop usa a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — DOUG SOSNIK was an adviser to BILL CLINTON for six years, and for some dozen years he has written regular memos about national trends that have attained something of a cult following amidst political junkies. We know many of our readers are fans of his wonky missives, then nosotros're pleased to present Sosnik's latest memo, "A Look Ahead to the 2022 Midterm Elections and Beyond," exclusively to the Playbook audience.

A key focus for Sosnik in determining the outcome of the midterms is where things stand in late summer of adjacent year, when views about the economy and the management of the state "harden" and information technology's too late for the Biden administration to change them.

That gives the president merely half dozen to eight months to turn things around. Pay attention to employment numbers (June iii, July eight, Aug. 5), aggrandizement data (June 10, July 13, Aug. 10) and the University of Michigan consumer confidence data released July xv and Aug. 12.

Sosnik has a overnice rundown and summary of what he calls the "Five Myths Virtually American Politics in the Historic period Of Trump" that are well worth your time and attention:

1) DONALD TRUMP's victory in 2022 was an aberration.
2) Census is destiny, and that is practiced for the Democrats.
3) A higher turnout is always good for Democrats.
4) The Trump presidency has realigned the suburbs toward the Autonomous Party.
v) Trump has pushed independents into the arms of the Autonomous Party.

On the 2022 Senate races, he focuses on the fact that Democrats could be lucky that the GOP is barreling toward nominating a series of out-of-the-mainstream candidates in primaries in several cardinal states. There'south a nice prune-and-salve master agenda to keep handy:

— Ohio (open, Portman): May iii chief
— North Carolina (open up, Burr): May 17 primary
— Pennsylvania (open up, Toomey): May 17 primary
— Alabama (open, Shelby): May 24 primary
— Georgia (Warnock): May 24 master/June 21 runoff
— Nevada (Cortez Masto): June 14 primary
— Arizona (Kelly): Aug. two primary
— Missouri (open, Edgeless): Aug. 2 main
— Wisconsin (Johnson): Aug. ix primary
— New Hampshire (Hassan): Sept. xiii primary

A few more tidbits:

— On 2022 House races: "If the Republicans pick up a net of 35 seats next year — a distinct possibility — they would achieve their highest total of members in the Business firm since 1929. However, the Republican win total could be somewhat tempered by the nationalization of our politics, in addition to their unexpected success in the 2022 House elections when they picked up a cyberspace of 14 seats."

— On 2022 governor's races: "If the Republicans pick upwards whatsoever of the presidential battleground states in the industrial Midwest (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), they will take total control of government in these states and, with this power, they could make up one's mind the voting procedures and counts in the side by side presidential election." Read the whole matter

BIDEN'Southward Midweek (Eastern times):

— 8 a.one thousand.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 9 a.thousand.: Biden will leave the White Business firm for Fort Campbell, Ky., arriving at xi:10 a.m. He'll survey the tornado harm with an aerial tour at eleven:35 a.1000.

— 12:05 p.g.: Biden will arrive in Mayfield, Ky., where he'll become a briefing from local leaders at 12:25 p.m. and tour a neighborhood at 1:45 p.m.

— 2:35 p.grand.: Biden volition go out Mayfield and head to Princeton, Ky., before touring a neighborhood in Dawson Springs, Ky. He'll evangelize remarks there almost his assistants's response to the storms at 4 p.m.

— 5:10 p.chiliad.: Biden will leave Princeton and eventually get in back at the White Business firm at seven:xxx p.m.

Principal deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle on Air Force One on the way to Kentucky. The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 11 a.m.

THE SENATE is in. THE HOUSE is out.

ALL POLITICS

SURVEY SAYS — Three years out from the next presidential election, voters of each party are largely sticking by their 2022 men, at to the lowest degree for now, our latest Pol/Morn Consult poll shows.

On the Republican side, vii in 10 voters retrieve Trump should probably or definitely run again. That'due south compared to a less-than-commanding 63% of Democrats who think the 79-twelvemonth-old Biden should seek reelection. Bad news for both men: A majority of independent voters are hoping neither runs, with 59% saying no to Trump and 67% saying Biden shouldn't seek a 2d term.

If Biden steps bated, his second-in-control would have a plurality of Democratic support, according to the poll. Thirty-i percent of Democratic voters said they would back VP KAMALA HARRIS, while 11% would support Transportation Secretarial assistant PETE BUTTIGIEG. Warren and Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (N.Y.) both choice upwardly eight% of support. Toplines … Crosstabs

THE COVID OFF-RAMP — Democratic governors were already barreling direct into a perilous midterm election. Merely a edifice winter Covid surge is putting many of them in a greater demark. Now, Democrats are "searching for an off-ramp to the pandemic that allows them to sell a brighter future to voters next November," Zach Montellaro reports in New Orleans.

1 BIG 2022 Election REVIEW — The AP looked into the half-dozen battlefield states where Trump attempted to dispute the 2022 election results and "institute fewer than 475 [cases of potential voter fraud] — a number that would have made no divergence in the 2022 presidential election," Christina Cassidy writes. "Biden won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and their 79 Balloter College votes past a combined 311,257 votes out of 25.v one thousand thousand ballots cast for president. The disputed ballots correspond merely 0.15 percent of his victory margin in those states. The cases could not throw the outcome into question fifty-fifty if all the potentially fraudulent votes were for Biden, which they were not, and even if those ballots were actually counted, which in most cases they were not."

THE PANDEMIC

TAKING STOCK — POLITICO's Recovery Lab is launching a new country-by-country pandemic scorecard, evaluating how well unlike parts of the land have handled the past 21 months. Amidst the findings: No state did well in every policy area. States that imposed more than restrictions such as stay-at-home orders and mask requirements did experience lower rates of death and hospitalizations. But they too tended to have worse economical and educational outcomes. Cheque out the valuable and complex analysis here.

A GRIM MILESTONE — The U.S. coronavirus death toll surpassed 800,000 on Tuesday — "a sad coda to a twelvemonth that held so much promise with the arrival of vaccines but is ending in heartbreak for the many grieving families trying to navigate the holiday season," AP's Heather Hollingsworth reports.

AND Another SURGE INCOMING? — "The omicron variant is already spreading rapidly in the United States and could bulldoze a massive wave of infections as soon as January," write WaPo's Meryl Kornfield, Paulina Villegas, Andrew Jeong, Annabelle Timsit, Ellen Francis and Lena Sun.

CONGRESS

LIBERTARIANISM MEETS DISASTER RELIEF — Later on Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) swiftly sought federal help after the tornado that hit Kentucky this weekend, WaPo's Mike DeBonis writes that the move "conjured memories of Paul'south own lengthy history of opposing congressional legislation written to accost past disasters, including bills passed post-obit hurricanes Sandy, Harvey and Maria directing billions of dollars of help to stricken Americans."

Jan. vi AND ITS AFTERMATH

Center-Stage CHENEY — NYT's Catie Edmondson and Luke Broadwater contour Cheney's performance on the Jan. 6 commission: "In closed-door interviews held in a nondescript federal function building nearly the Capitol, Ms. Cheney has emerged as a leader and central figure on the panel, known for drilling down into the details of the assignment she views every bit the most important of her political career. She is well-versed in the criminal code and often uses language borrowed from it to make clear she believes the former president and others face up criminal exposure."

Can YOU HEAR ME Now? — JOHN EASTMAN sued to block Verizon from handing over his phone data and messages to the Jan. 6 committee, per Bloomberg. The lawsuit

TRUMP CARDS

ANOTHER LAWSUIT SCRAPPED — A federal judge rejected Trump'southward lawsuit that aimed to prevent congressional Democrats from obtaining information about the former president's taxation returns, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. The ruling "is a boost for the House Ways and Means Committee, chaired by Rep. RICHARD NEAL (D-Mass.), which has been seeking Trump'south taxation returns since the heart of 2019."

TRUMP PROBE HEATING UP — Sources tell WaPo'due south David Fahrenthold, Josh Dawsey, Shayna Jacobs and Jonathan O'Connell that Trump's accountant DONALD Bough recently spoke to a New York thou jury that's investigating Trump'south finances. A former Deutsche Bank employee who handled loans to Trump, ROSEMARY VRABLIC, was also interviewed by prosecutors, they write.

These latest moves "advise prosecutors are seeking information about Trump's finances from a pocket-size circle of outside partners who handled details of Trump's taxes and real estate deals. Bender and Vrablic were never Trump'south employees, but they knew more about his company's inner workings than many employees did."

— NYT'southward William Rashbaum, Ben Protess and Jonah Bromwich write that the documents compiled past Trump's accountants "could help reply a question at the middle of the long-running criminal investigation into the former president: Did he inflate the value of his avails to defraud his lenders?"

Elon Musk ripped into Elizabeth Warren after she tweeted that the U.S. should "change the rigged tax code so The Person of the Twelvemonth volition really pay taxes and cease freeloading." "Y'all remind me of when I was a child and my friend's angry Mom would just randomly yell at everyone for no reason," Musk replied. So: "Please don't call the manager on me, Senator Karen." Followed by: "If you opened your eyes for ii seconds, you lot would realize I will pay more than taxes than whatsoever American in history this year." And: "Don't spend it all at once … oh wait you did already."

Cory Booker walked through the Senate subway "diggings Mariah Carey'south 'All I Want For Christmas Is You' from Spotify on his phone." (h/t Andrew Desiderio)

Bob Menendez was rushing to make a vote on the Senate floor when he slipped, fracturing and dislocating his shoulder.

Andrew Cuomo was given xxx days to pay back his $five.i million book deal after New York's land ethics board found he'd used state resources to write the volume.

Luann de Lesseps of "Existent Housewives of New York" fame dined and dashed at Le Diplomate, merely ended up paying her neb afterwards N.Y. Mag's Shawn McCreesh called her publicist.

The NYT published an "editor's notation" for the ages atop a story originally published last month well-nigh a Palestinian professor of poetry.

OMICRON DASHES WHITE HOUSE HOLIDAY PARTIES — The White House is canceling its glitzy vacation party season in response to the Omicron spread, The Daily Mail'due south Emily Goodin scoops. "President Joe Biden and kickoff lady Jill Biden will host 'Holiday Open Houses' instead of cocktail parties for the holiday season, so visitors can encounter the decorations in the White Firm in a COVID-friendly way," she writes.

Michael LaRosa, Jill Biden'southward spokesman, told Goodin it's "disappointing that nosotros cannot host as many people as the Bidens would similar to," simply the administration will keep to abide by Covid protocols.

SPOTTED at the White House: lawyer and old "The View" co-host Star Jones (h/t theGrio's Apr Ryan). Ryan reports that Jones met with the VP for "xxx mins catching up & talked policy that impacts women, girls and young people of color."

OUT AND Well-nigh — Nearly every White Business firm contributor and member of the Biden printing team got together (nether D.C. Covid guidelines!) at the JW Marriott for the annual White House Correspondents' Association holiday reception Tuesday night. As per tradition, in that location was a Christmas poem themed for D.C., a speech from WHCA president Steve Portnoy and a little roast from White Firm printing secretary Jen Psaki.

— The Motion Picture Clan and Bloomberg hosted a screening of "House of Gucci" at the MPA'due south headquarters Tuesday nighttime. Later the screening, Bloomberg's Peggy Collins saturday downward with Bloomberg's Sara Forden to discuss her book on which the screenplay is based. SPOTTED: Charles Rivkin, Emily Lenzner, Sena Fitzmaurice, Cameron Normand, Andrew Reinsdorf, Kira Alvarez, Emorie Broemel, Wes Kosova, Anna Edgerton, Jackie Simmons, Mike Shepard, Heather Podesta, Stephen Kessler, Tammy Haddad, Giuditta Giorgio, Giuseppe Sarcina, Lamberto Moruzzi, Pascal Confavreux, Georgette Brammer-Hardy, Matea Gilded, Jenn Molay, Michael Anthony, Berin Szóka, Christina Sevilla and Izzy Klein.

— The Renew Democracy Initiative held a "Frontlines of Freedom" dinner Tuesday night at the Watergate, which featured an off-the-record conversation about Russian aggression, Ukraine and America'south role in protecting republic. SPOTTED: Garry Kasparov, Rep. Andy Kim (D-Due north.J.), Heidi Heitkamp, Michael Steele, Rina Shah, Pecker Kristol, Lucy Caldwell, Alex Vindman, Max Kicking, Mona Charen, Linda Chavez, retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal, retired Gen. Michael Hayden, retired Lt. Gen. James Clapper, Bill Taylor, Matt Calkins, David Frum, Dmitri Mehlhorn, Annie Scranton and Alex Yergin.

Start IN PLAYBOOK — The Academy of Chicago Institute of Politics is announcing its wintertime fellows: GOP strategist Mark Campbell, former San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz Soto, one-time Chicago inspector general Joe Ferguson, former MoveOn executive manager Anna Galland, TOLONews' Lotfullah Najafizada and journalist/author Sarah Smarsh.

— John Campbell is joining Ruby Border to launch its fundraising practise. He'due south an alum of FreedomWorks and Prosper Group.

MEDIA Movement — Jen Friedman is now VP of comms at NBCUniversal. She most recently was director for public affairs at Blackstone. More from The Hollywood Reporter

TRANSITIONS — Corinne Day is now deputy comms director for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). She previously was media relations managing director at the R Street Institute, and is an RNC alum. … Tom Gannon is now chief government relations officer at H&R Block, heading the D.C. office. He most recently was VP of public policy at Mastercard. … Wells Griffith is at present a senior director for FTI Consulting's strategic comms segment. He most recently was managing managing director and senior adviser to the CEO for energy at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and is a Trump NSC, NEC and DOE alum. …

… Adam Golodner is at present a senior adviser at WestExec Advisors. He previously was at Arnold & Porter, and is a Cisco and DOJ alum. … Alifair Masters is at present deputy chief of staff for Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.). She previously was VP at HM Consulting. … Zach Farmer is joining the Council for Opportunity in Education as manager of congressional diplomacy. He most recently was in Rep. Warren Davidson'due south (R-Ohio) office, covering instruction, veterans and other issues.

WELCOME TO THE Globe — Alex Schriver, EVP at Targeted Victory, and Tracey Schriver, SVP at the Depository financial institution Policy Institute, welcomed Virginia Lee Schriver on Mon. Picture show … Another pic

— Elizabeth Boylan, director of authorities and industry diplomacy at FMC Corporation, and Patrick Boylan, founder of Raconteur Artistic, recently welcomed baby James. Pic

— Natalie Buchanan Joyce, deputy chief of staff for member services to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and Sean Joyce, CEO of Atlas Crossing, welcomed Jameson Buchanan Joyce on Dec. 7. He came in at vii lbs, 10 oz, is named after both of his grandfathers, and joins large sister Genevieve.

HAPPY Birthday: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … retired Gen. John Allen of Brookings … Ruy Teixeira (seven-0) … Donna Brazile … Politician'due south Isabel Dobrin, Mollie Parlini and Valerie Yurk … Winter Casey … Andrew Cote of Brinc Drones … Bill Knapp … Jim Dornan of Michael Steele'due south Maryland gubernatorial exploratory commission … Erin Dwyer … Lauren French of Rep. Adam Schiff'southward (D-Calif.) office and House Intel … Heather Booth … Tara Corrigan of the Messina Group … Tim Dickson … Jeff Le of Rhino and the Truman National Security Projection … Anna Jager … Lenny Young of Rep. Julia Brownley's (D-Calif.) office … Patrick Oakford … Fox News' Griff Jenkins … Meridith Webster … Cheddar'south Kristen Scholer … Danyell Tremmel … Andy Polesovsky … Caroline Ponseti of the Herald Group … McCauley Mateja … Sarah Sullivan … January Eberly … Brian Haley … Maggie Gau … Carson Pfingston

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Source: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/12/15/a-junkies-guide-to-the-2022-midterms-495470

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